Herbert W Armstrong

More on the “English Disease”: In the previous “on the World Scene" column (Dec. 13), we presented information concerning Britain's continuing national decline. Since that time an excellent article appeared in the December 23 issue of THE NEW REPUBLIC, written by Peter Jenkins, the outspoken political columnist of London's SUNDAY TIMES. Mr. Jenkins' article, along with less significant ones by two other writers, were featured on the cover under the title “Not So Great Britain,” which featured the picture of a lion appearing to be weeping. Here are excerpts of Mr. Jenkins' article:

To the ancients it seemed natural that empires would fall and that the cause would be failure of a moral kind.... The spectacular decline of 17th-century Spain greatly influenced

Gibbon's view of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire; moral degeneracy at the root of economic failure and military defeat. The analogy between moral decline and physical disease ...is with us today. In the late 19th century there was "the sick man of Europe" (the Ottoman Empire); today, the "English disease."...

There is nothing inevitable about decline. Nations with a capacity to adapt can overcome the fateful blows of war, trade diversion, or technological advance — but history suggests that they seldom do. In maturity habits become set, institutions tend to ossify, and interests conspire against change.... Economists today talk about "mature" economies or ..."institutional sclerosis."...

The worry about Britain is that we shall have failed to seize the last chance provided by the providential boon of North Sea oil, and for essentially the same sort of cultural failures that brought the demise of previous empires. Prime Minister Thatcher believes otherwise; she thinks she is on the way to "killing socialism" in Britain. She was the first political leader to openly discuss the "English disease," and she ran in 1979 on a pledge to arrest and reverse Britain's decline. Meanwhile, a more liberalized economy has been, since 1981, one of the fastest growing in Europe. Yet, wondering how Britain will support itself when the North Sea oil runs out, a committee of the House of Lords recently warned: "It is neither exaggeration, nor irresponsible, to say that the present situation undoubtedly contains the seeds of a major political and economic crisis in the forseeable future. Yet the nation at large appears to unaware of the seriousness of its predicament. "...[Note Hosea 7:9 in this regard.]

The chief reason for being so pessimistic about arresting and reversing Britain's relative decline is that it has been going on for so long.... The litany runs through the decades: generational decline in entrepreneurial spirit; social prejudice against manufacture and trade; education bias in favor of liberal over technical education; failure to apply science and technology to commerce; ...complacent management and obstructive trade unions; industrial relations poisoned by class discrimination, and resistance to change all around. Britain's path of relative decline was obscured until the 1939-45 war by empire and wealth of overseas assets....

The cumulative causations of 100 years or more have resulted in a condition in which an almost superhuman adaptation would required to reverse the path of relative decline. The principal recommendation of the House of Lords study is that the national attitude toward trade and manufacturing "needs to change — and change radically." How many hundreds or thousands of times has this been said? How does a government go about changing deeply rooted cultural attitudes?

Growing French-Western Military Ties: The November 22 "On the World Scene” presented information concerning greater joint weapons production among the NATO European allies. Now comes word of growing military ties between Bonn and Paris, according to a report published in the October 11, 1985, issue of THE WEEK IN GERMANY, a weekly newsletter published by the German Information Center in New York City, a service of the West German government.

Paris and Bonn intend to significantly strengthen their military cooperation, according to State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense Lothar Ruhl. In a newspaper interview published Monday (October 7), Ruhl announced that in joint maneuvers planned for coming years, French and German troops for the first time will train on German soil at corps strength, that is a total of 150,000 soldiers. In 1987, units of the French army's rapid deployment force are to hold exercises in the Federal Republic because the French troops could be used in forward positions and at an earlier stage, Ruhl explained. The State Secretary also said that the Federal Government would welcome an expansion of the French nuclear umbrella to cover the territory of the Federal Republic. He stressed in this connection that Bonn views an eventual French role solely as complementing the nuclear protection provided by the United States and NATO nuclear forces in Europe, and in no way as an alternative to this protection. The topic is currently being discussed by the joint Franco-German task force on defense, he said.

“Dump Marcos” Mood — the Consequences: The Philippine national election called by President Ferdinand E. Marcos is set for February 7, 1986. The campaign is underway. The President's opposition is at last united around a single slate headed by Corazon Aquino, wife of slain nationalist figure Benigno Aquino. Mrs. Aquino has had no personal political experience at all and makes no pretentions otherwise. But she is popular in opposition quarters because of the circumstances surrounding her husband's death. Openly accusing the President of personal complicity in the crime, Mrs. Aquino's sole concern is his removal from office.

Mr. Marcos draws attention to Mrs. Aquino's lack of qualifications and the political tint of many of her supporters, whom, he says, are "red." In a speech on December 14, the president noted that the Philippines' strategic geographic position might embroil it in a major regional conflict in the future, saying that “it is therefore necessary that whoever is commander-in-chief of the armed forces must know a little of military science.” (Marcos was a highly decorated World War II hero.)

Official Washington is nervous over the Feb. 7 election??"and in a curious way. The fear is that Marcos, as many expect, will win, and that the U.S. will be stuck, as the argument goes, with "supporting another dictator,” no matter if the elections are free from poll-booth chicanery. Mr. Marcos enjoys very little support among majority Democrats and even many Republicans in Congress. There is even what is described as a "dump Marcos” mood, backed up by liberal academicians. For example, Arthur Schlesinger Jr., former Kennedy administrative official, wrote a long WALL STREET JOURNAL article on Dec. 18 entitled "Send Marcos Packing.” The attitude of the left in Washington is that Marcos is an anachronistic embarrassment, that "pure democracy" must be restored, no matter who takes charge, and that this is the only way to win popular Filipino support to face the biggest challenge of all — the threat posed by a growing band of Communist guerrillas in the New People's Army (NPA)” This all may sound logical in theory, but it overlooks both the weakness and the fractious divisions within the "democratic opposition,” as well as the ability of the Communists, through legal "political fronts,” to worm their way to the top of that opposition, to gain by the ballot what the NPA is struggling to achieve by the bullet.

In her syndicated column of Dec. 15, former U.N. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick took a jaundiced look at U.S. attitudes toward its former Asian colony. She wrote the following, under the title "The 'Dump Marcos' Frenzy Puts the Rest of Asia at Risk":

There is more at stake in the Philippines than two U.S. bases or the continuation of the Marcos regime. Look at the map. The Philippines' location is of enormous geopolitical significance. To the north lie Taiwan, Japan, Korea and the People's Republic of China: to the west, Vietnam: to the south, Malaysia and other Asian states. Economically, this is the most dynamic region in the world.... NATO forces protect the independent nations of Western Europe, but no such alliance system offsets Soviet proximity and power in the Pacific. That fact has not escaped the attention of the global chess masters in the Kremlin.

The overriding U.S. goal in the Pacific is, I assume, to preserve the sovereignty of the independent nations that exist there. It would be bad for them and bad for us if those nations were incorporated into the "socialist world system," their industrial power available for the projection of Soviet military might — as Vietnam lends Cam Ranh Bay to the Soviet Pacific fleet.... Yet from reading the American press, one would think that President Ferdinand E. Marcos is the "focus of evil" in the contemporary world, and that his government is the major threat to U.S. interests in Asia. Day after day, American newspapers, news weeklies and network newscasts treat Marcos' real and imagined failures, inefficiencies and corruption as though they were extraordinary and unique. They are not. Of 159 member states of the United Nations, at least 100 are probably governed more poorly than the Philippines....

Remember Batista, Ngo Dinh Diem, Lon Nol, the Shah of Iran, Somoza? The failings of each were magnified by people who played on American political purism.... Yet once these rulers had fallen, those who worked indefatigably to bring them down quickly forgot them and had little to say about the more tragically repressive, aggressive dictatorships imposed by their successors....

The likely long-term “repressive aggressive dictatorship" would be provided by the Communist Party of the Philippines, which presides over the "New People's Army" guerrillas. The NPA's policy of intimidation of the local populace is so strong it prompted an article in the December 1985 issue of COMMENTARY magazine calling its leaders "The new Khmer Rouge,” after the doctrinaire Communists who swept over Cambodia in 1975. The aim of the Philippine communists is to establish a "People's Democratic Republic of the Philippines," a name they have already selected.

So far, Moscow has not given the CPP or the NPA fighters direct support. It is being cautious. It can do little as long as two huge military installations, Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base, are still in U.S. hands. (Washington has a commitment to defend the Philippines if called upon to do so.) The catch for Washington is that the democratic opponents to Marcos nearly all profess to want to see the bases go. Mrs. Aquino is not in favor of the bases remaining in U.S. control past the present 1991 lease termination. While money talks, and the bases' leases bring in a lot of it, to say nothing of the employment of tens of thousands of Filipinos, the more-leftist democratic nationalists feel the bases compromise Filipino sovereignty. Just how critical are these two bases anyway? By any yardstick, it is difficult to overemphasize their unique strategic value. Peter Grier wrote in the October 31, 1985, CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR:

Subic Naval Base and Clark Air [Force] Base in the Philippines... sit near the entrance to some of the busiest ocean lanes in the world.

"Speaking frankly, these facilities are extraordinarily important to the United States,” said Richard Armitage, assistant secretary of defense.... He points out that the Philippines sit at the front gate of sea routes that run through the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and into the Indian Ocean. Control of these routes is vital to protecting oil traffic coming from the Persian Gulf, the defense of Japan, and projection of U.S. power in the Western Pacific. Only about two hours' flight time from the Philippines, note U.S. officers, is the huge Soviet Naval Base at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam.... Any U.S. replacement bases for Clark and Subic [such as in Guam or on Tinian Island in the Marianas) would be several days' steaming time and three to four hours' flight time further from the vital waters around the Philippines....

The September 4, 1985, WALL STREET JOURNAL described Subic and Clark together as "an all-service pit stop," impossible to replace:

Skilled, hard-working repair crews are the main reason Navy skippers love to steam into this beautiful, mountain -fringed cul-de-sac harbor north of the Bataan Peninsula.... From a tiny Spanish coaling station in 1868, it has turned into the largest and arguably the finest one-stop vendor of naval services the U.S. has overseas. Its on-base work force of 34,000, and the 246,000 people in the adjacent town of Olongapo, cater to every Navy need: repairs, fuel, supplies, armaments, recreation, liberty, training, target practice, instrument calibration and fresh produce. It is convenient, efficient and a bargain. And the Navy is loath to talk about giving it up.

Looming, however, is the specter of a "lost our lease” sign.... The agreement between Washington and Manila permitting use of Subic Bay, nearby Clark Air Base and some smaller facilities doesn't expire until 1991. But the regime of President Ferdinand Marcos may expire much sooner, and there are lots of unfriendly people, including a fast-growing Communist insurgency, vying to take power next. They could politely ask the Americans to leave. Or they might kick them out. Many Marcos opponents want the U.S.to pull out immediately. They argue that Washington props up a corrupt and abusive regime with hundreds of millions of dollars in “rent,” in the form of military and economic aid. Others fear the bases would make the Philippines a priority target in a nuclear war....

The estimated price tag for replacement facilities elsewhere: up to 5 billion, at the moment. [Note: This would be prohibitively expensive under the future military spending restrictions inherent in the Gramm-Rudman balanced­budget proposal] Time required: perhaps eight years. Operating costs elsewhere: through the roof....

These bases are a budget-cutter's dream.... Convenience is the other prime military asset. Together, Subic and Clark amount to an all-service pit stop, well-located near the intersection of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Scattering their functions about the region, which is the most likely alternative, would hurt military effectiveness simply because it is possible here to do so many time-consuming things at once.... Besides many classified communications and listening stations on base and nearby, the Navy has its largest overseas supply depot here. Its $425 million inventory of 360,000 line items includes everything from battleship gun barrels to dog food. It is the major supply point for the U.S. naval facility at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, sending it 6,000 tons of supplies each week....

I know of no more professional group anywhere in the world, “former U.S. Ambassador William H. Sullivan wrote recently [of Subic's highly-skilled Filipino shipyard workers].... “Workers in American shipyards are a new breed. Gone are most of the old civil servants and master craftsmen who staffed our yards up to and through World War II. In their place are mostly short-timers and drifters who take shipyard work when they cannot find something better to do. Their dedication to professional standards leaves much to be desired. "Mr. Sullivan estimates that shipyards on U.S. mainland cost eight times more for a job than Subics. "If one also understands that the quality of work is better at Subic, the ratio may be even higher,” he says.

It is no wonder that the Communists are eagerly looking forward to the post-Marcos period, whether after February 7 or at some later date. Furthermore, the Communists rejoice in moves on the part of some U.S. Congressional leaders to scale back military aid to the Philippine government — used in the fight against the NPA — until Mr. Marcos enacts political reforms. There is a potentially "fatal flaw” in that argument. Without U.S. support, says Assistant Defense Secretary Armitage, the Philippine Army, already "flailing about in an agony of shortages," will be unable to fight communism and make needed reforms at the same time.

Of course there is one additional factor to the Philippine situation: God has called a high number of Filipinos into His Church. It is unlikely that anything drastic will happen in the Philippines — and certainly not the imposition of a religion-snuffing "People's Republic" — until God allows. Much the same situation prevails in El Salvador today, where government forces continue to hold the upper hand.

— Gene B. Hogberg, News Bureau