PROBABILITY: WHAT IT SAYS ABOUT EVOLUTION - Robert A Ginskey - August 1978

Robert A Ginskey

Probability is that branch of mathematics which deals with "chance" or uncertain phenomena. The probability of a given event is a number, between zero and one, which measures how likely it is that the event will occur. If an event is impossible, its probability is zero. If an event is an absolute certainty, its probability is one. A probability of one out of two, or 1/2, means that it is just as likely that the event will happen as it is that the event will not happen. Sometimes this situation is described by terms such as "50 percent chance," "50-50 chance, " or "even money." The closer the probability is to one, the likelier the event is. For instance, an event whose probability is equal to one out often (or 1/10) is more probable than one whose probability is one out of a thousand (or 1/1000). On the other hand, the closer the probability is to zero, the less likely the event is. An event whose probability is 1/1000 is less probable than one whose probability is 1/10. Now to the question at hand. What does probability have to do with evolution? The theory of evolution claims that life, in all of its complexity, originally came into existence by random combinations of dead chemicals, i.e., by chance. And since probability is the mathematics of chance, probability should have a great deal to say about evolution. In the following two articles some of the relationships between evolution and probability are discussed. - Information Supplied By: Herbert W Armstrong Library